Raw Material Update

30 DECEMBER 2016



Over recent weeks the raw material market has been subject to a whole cross section of factors.


It has made for an interesting period with price direction difficult to predict.


Starting with proteins planting of soya beans is progressing well in South America.


Brazil plantings are almost complete with the acreage planted similar to last year.


Argentina is almost 50% planted which is similar to the same time last year.


Undoubtedly markets will be quick to pick up on weather related issues as these crops establish & grow but at the moment there are no obvious challenges to supply.


For the UK an improved sterling value over recent weeks has helped see soya meal prices ease.


The whole area of the Brexit deal the Uk negotiates and the outcome of Article 50 supreme court case will clearly have a strong bearing on sterling values over the coming months.


Spot Rapemeal values have finally eased across Europe. The supply of seed has improved and better crush margins have led to more meal being available. It is hoped this situation remains.


Distillers supply in the UK has altered sharply with recent plentiful supply now looking to be much tighter. Rumours surround Ensus,Teesdide curtailing production again,Vivergo,Hull production all spoken for and imported maize distillers running out fast in Liverpool, shippers don’t you just love them!


On cereals the global supply picture looks OK.


The glut Russia & Ukraine are sitting on is likely to be marketed strongly in first quarter 2017.


At what price and where this finds a home time will tell.


The UK has exported around 1 million tonnes of wheat, milling & feed, to various European destinations since harvest.


Whilst this has not left the UK short of wheat it has enabled prices to firm and this looks set to remain so through to harvest.


UK barley supplies are tightening with a lack of quality in terms of bushel weight a constant challenge. We have and will continue to reject low bushel weight cereals.


Fibres


This market looks distinctly firm. Trident appear to have sold out of home produced SBP for this season.


Imported SBP, whilst available ,looks expensive.


PK & hulls are holding onto their current higher prices and look set to do so through the first half of 2016 at least.